For those new to the site, my name is Zach Cancila. I currently work for the Tampa Bay Lightning as a graphic designer, however, I was born and raised in St. Louis and remain a loyal Blues fan to this day. I want to apologize in advance for any grammatical errors, as it has been awhile since my last formal writing piece.
Working in sports, it has been a pleasure to learn more about the business side of the game I love. Whether it be contract structure, player development, signings and trades, etc., understanding the makeup of the Tampa Bay Lightning has given me better insight about the current state of our St. Louis Blues and possible solutions for improvement going into the 2024-25 season.
Briefly recapping the 2023-24 season, a lot of fans would agree it was a year that mostly met expectations. The team showed fight at some points, looked lost at others, and proved once again that this team is right where Doug Armstrong said they would be, in a retool. We saw excellence in net, the emergence of a top 15 center, the breakout of Jake Neighbours, and good signs from young players (Bolduc, Kessel, etc). There were definitely positives to be had regarding the 2023-24 season. But, if you have been following this team closely for the past two seasons, it should be more than evident that this team has serious roster issues both up front and on the backend. While some of that is by design from being in a retool, it should not be overlooked that the result is a biproduct of moves that should and should not have been made by general manager Doug Armstrong.
Heading into year three of the retool, this could be Doug Armstrong’s biggest offseason since being named GM of the St. Louis Blues. While some could argue years prior to winning the cup were critical in terms of getting the team over the hump, this is the first time the team has missed the playoffs in back to back years since Armstrong became GM prior to the 2010-11 season.
There are many reasons I believe this will be a busy offseason for the Blues, with the first being one that probably goes under the radar for casual hockey fans. Working for the Lightning, I am grateful for the level of transparency that is provided to us. The organization exhibits an incredible top-down approach where employees are constantly in the know regarding player movement, organizational changes, as well as revenue sharing. With all that said, through working for an NHL organization, I have learned about the significance of playoff gate renevue and the massive impact it has on a team’s business operations.
For general manager Doug Armstrong, it has been duly noted that he has no appetite for a rebuild; as he doesn’t believe Blues fans would be able to stomach 5-6 years of missing the playoffs. While there is truth to that, the other (less talked about) side is the fact Blues ownership might not be able to handle the drought financially. If you follow Blues insider Jeremy Rutherford, it has been well documented throughout the past year that there is valid concern financially if the club were to miss the playoffs a third straight season.
This leads me into the second reason I am expecting a busy summer which is the playoff berths of both Nashville and Washington. For Stillman and company, after just missing out on a berth and the gate revenue that comes with it, there might be a little extra pressure from ownership on Armstrong after seeing teams like the Predators and Capitals clinch a spot. While each team took a different path to the playoffs, ownership can compare these two teams for different reasons when assessing how their team can return to the playoffs in 2025.
Beginning with Washington, last season was evidence that teams in the midst of a retool/inconsistent teams can still make the playoffs based on the unpredictability of the league. While the same can be said aboout Nashville in terms of being in the midst of a retool, they eventually eliminated their inconsistencies and turned into a team that was hard to play against down the stretch.
From season to season, it is hard to predict which teams will rise and which will fall. However, if one thing has remained true the past few years, it’s that after the top 3 teams in each division, wild card spots are oftentimes hard to predict going into next season.
While I don’t believe ownership should set their sights next season on being a bad team that makes the playoffs, the reality is, this team is most likely going to remain inconsistent which is to be expected of teams in a so-called retool. However, with that said, going into year three of this process the Nashville Predators berth was evidence that a few effective moves can significantly benefit your team without messing up the trajectory of said retool.
The result of both of these examples is this: The Blues are not going to address all of their issues and turn themselves into a contender in one offseason. But, with contracts coming off the books and the right moves made, a spot in the playoffs should be seen as attainable and there for the taking.
Getting into the heart of the matter, while I have no experience working in a front office and am an armchair GM at best, here is a list of practical moves I could see the Blues making heading into the 2024–25 season.
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Buyouts:
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Kevin Hayes - $3.5m (Against the cap until 2025-26)
Reaction:
Out of all the transactions listed below, this is probably the most realistic move that is key to big picture success; even more so if a certain someone finds their way onto this roster come October…(Dalibor Dvorksy). We have just experienced our first year of Kevin Hayes as a member of the St. Louis Blues, and on behalf of the entire fanbase, I think we can all agree the experiment has run its course. Brought in to be a 3C that could also boost team morale, Hayes had an ok year, but did not bring the production some might have hoped. Going into the reasons as to why this move should happen, it is evident there just isn’t enough to Hayes’ game that should warrant him sticking around on a team that is looking to improve next season. I don’t care if he is the funniest guy in the locker room and was able to lighten the mood a little this past year; Kevin Hayes does not make this hockey team better. End of story. Much of the reason this move needs to be made is for two reasons in particular , his presence only blocks the opportunity for players to be deployed where they probably should be. spot on the roster moving forward should In addition to this, the drop off of Brayden Schenn also contributes to this being a move that should probably be made. Schenn had a decent year, putting up good not great totals especially towards the end of the year. However, this season it became clear he is not an ideal 2C for a team looking to be better moving forward. Schenn at 3C would be the best option for this team moving forward. At this point in his career, he is still a serviceable player. But, with the playmaking abilities and speed significantly dropping off this year, a better option could definitely be found to generate more opportunities alongside guys like Bolduc and Neighbours. All that being said, this is a move that needs to be made. While Armstrong has yet to buy out a contract during his tenure in St. Louis, with his job potentially in jeopardy and ownership expecting better results next year, I hope Doug is willing to put aside his pride for the betterment of the team.
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Trades:
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To WPG:
Hunter Skinner
Justin Faulk (30% retained)
2024 3rd Rd Pick
To STL:
Dylan Samberg
2025 5th Rd Pick
Reaction:
Right off the bat, yes I know, Faulk has a NTC and to waive it would he really go to Winnipeg? Probably not. But, with him being from Minnesota and being a big fisherman who knows, maybe Winnipeg lifestyle isn’t that out of the picture and he’s closer to family. This is purely for fun anyways so why not just assume. Faulk goes to a competitive team where he can slide in as 2nd pair RD. Blues get back a player in Samberg, 25, who can play both LD and RD, has size, is a stay at home defensive defenseman, and has a physical presence. A great add that would give the Blues backend stability and grit, while also fitting the age of the core moving forward. The Blues lose Hunter Skinner who was picked up from NYR in the Tarasenko deal. Skinner has played mostly bottom pair minutes in Springfield and does not project to be an everyday NHLer with bottom pair NHL defenseman as his ceiling. For Winnipeg, one of the organization’s biggest weaknesses is the lack of prospects on the blue line, and out of all the Blues defensive prospects, I believe Skinner is one Armstrong would be willing to part with given his limited upside.
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To TBL:
Torey Krug (40% retained)
2025 2nd Rd Pick
To STL:
Roman Schmidt
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To SJ:
Nikita Alexandrov
Mikhail Abramov
2024 1st Rd Pick
To STL:
Mario Ferraro
2026 6th Rd Pick
Reaction:
If you ask any fan, this might be one of the most necessary items on the agenda for Doug Armstrong this summer as a new partner desperately needs to be found for Colton Parayko. Coming off a poor 2022-23 season, Colton Parayko responded nicely in 2023-24, playing all 82 games while looking to be back to his old self. On the other side of defense however, it was another tough season for Nick Leddy, who’s side of the ice continued to be dominated by the opposition in 2023-24. With Leddy, I do believe he can still be a useful player for this team, just not as a first pair defenseman at this point in his career. Would I prefer the team to be without Krug, Faulk, and Leddy? yes, however getting out of all 3 let alone 2 contracts is almost impossible. I also believe, at this point, Leddy is the best player of the 3 and his contract isn’t “as big” of an issue for this team. Moving onto Ferraro, I will be honest; finding a left side, budget contract, 1st pair defenseman that fits the age of the core and could be available for trade (phew) was not easy. But, here we have Mario Ferraro. Ferraro, 25, is a defensive defenseman that can play in any situation, devours huge minutes and may be most effective when paired with an offensive-minded partner. While there might be better options out there that have higher offensive upside playing next to Parayko, Ferraro is an underrated skater whose ability allows him to jump into the rush quickly. In addition to his skating, Ferraro is also a solid puck mover that can turn defense into offense quickly with his stretch passing and quick vision. On the contrary, to San Jose goes Alexandrov and Abramov. Alexandrov has had a few stints where he has looked good during his first two seasons in the NHL. Oftentimes being a healthy scratch this year, in his limited appearances, it appeared his game wasn’t as solid compared to the year prior. From getting knocked off of pucks easily, fumbling passes constantly, and not generating plays, I like to believe much of it had to do with simply the lack of consistency in games played, which I can imagine makes it incredibly difficult to have your game in top shape. Similar to Skinner, I believe Armstrong would be willing to part with Alexandrov. Due to his slow-ish development and the fact the Blues seem to have a stockpile of talented forwards in their system, I think it makes him expendable. A trade comparable I used when coming up with the return was the Filip Hronek trade from Detroit to Vancouver in March of 2023. At the time, Hronek, 25, was a first pair, 40-point defenseman, running both power-play and penalty kill for the Red Wings. From Vancouver, Detroit acquired a 2023 1st rd pick and a 2023 2nd rd pick. For Ferraro, a player of similar experience, age, and capabilities, I thought this return was feasible especially considering there is less offense to his game than Hronek. Some fans might be hesitant about the Blues giving up a first considering the position they are in. My response to that is: if you are able to acquire a young, first pair, experienced, cost controlled defenseman, you give up this pick; especially with the 2024 Draft being seen as “weaker” than years prior. Not only that, at some point you have to turn picks into NHL ready talent if the player is right, and in this instance, I truly believe that’s the case.
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Cap Breakdown:
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Forwards:
$42,698,095 to $52,198,095
Defense:
$25,100,000 to $21,300,000
Goalies:
$6,775,000
Projected Cap: $87,500,000
Blues 2024-25 Cap: $
Estimated Cap Space: $
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Projected Lineup:
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Pavel Buchnevich - Robert Thomas - Jordan Kyrou
Brandon Saad - Sean Monahan - Jake Neighbours
Zachary Bolduc - Dalibor Dvorsky - Brayden Schenn
Nathan Walker - Zach Dean - Alexey Toropchenko
Mario Ferraro - Colton Parayko
Nick Leddy - Matthew Kessel
Dylan Samberg - Tyler Tucker
Jordan Binnington
Joel Hofer
Extras:
Samuel Johannesson
Oskar Sundqvist
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New Cap Hits Added:
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Sean Monahan - $2m (Two year contract to play as 2C,
Dylan Samberg - $1.4m (Signed until 2024-25)
Mario Ferraro - $3.25m (Signed until 2025-26)
Daniel Sprong - $2.5m (Two year contract. Back to back 40 point player. 27 years old)